by Mykola Golovko, toys and games project manager, Euromonitor International
Technology has a transformative impact on countless aspects of our everyday lives. The list of markets disrupted by technology and rapid innovation continues to grow, and as smart toys become more prevalent, significant shifts are expected in how the global toy market works. The changes will be driven primarily by digital natives entering and overtaking the toy consumer base.
By 2017, annual sales of smartphones will surpass 1 billion units. Tablets and—more recently—wearable electronics have also become mainstream products. In 2016, mobile Internet subscriptions are expected to top 3 billion, and will likely surpass the 4 billion mark by 2019. This puts a smartphone with an Internet connection in the majority of households, in addition to computers, smart TVs, and other connected devices, which are rapidly gaining in popularity. Children worldwide are growing up surrounded by technology. For them, it is a natural component of everyday life, and toys that offer interactive features and integrate virtual components into gameplay will feel natural to this audience. Manufacturers will respond with increasingly sophisticated products that blend physical and virtual gameplay.
Software and Content Gain Market Power
So far, the most commercially successful products blending virtual and physical gameplay have been in the toys-to-life category, but going forward, we expect to see expanding physical playability to be the focus of development. Making smart toys more interactive in the real world will require the integration of contextual computing and elements of augmented reality. This will make the software platforms for toys increasingly complex, causing a shift away from the walled garden model of toys-to-life products toward more open platforms that minimize development costs.
This is exactly what happened with mobile phones. As these products became increasingly sophisticated, there was significant consolidation in software platforms, to the point where the market became essentially a duopoly of two operating systems. As software, content, and services gained importance in mobile computing, hardware became commoditized, with significant declines in prices. Similar dynamics are expected in toys and games as smart toys become mainstream products. The value of a toy will be a combination of the physical product, the capabilities of the software platform, and the content this platform can deliver.
Adjusting to Changes
Toys are already becoming more complex products, as licensing becomes an ever-expanding part of the global market. The most successful toy lines are no longer stand-alone products, but integral parts of entertainment franchises that can span feature films, TV shows, and video games, along with apparel and other licensed products.
Smart toys will add software platforms to the total value proposition of a toy. The role of software will enable interaction with digital content in meaningful and engaging ways. Products that integrate new technology for the sake of technology itself have typically done poorly. Products that use augmented reality and contextually aware software to allow children to interact with their favorite characters in new ways will be the must-have toys of the future.
Mykola Golovko is the toys and games project manager at Euromonitor International, a provider of strategic market research. Golovko studies the ways in which technology diffusion rates accelerate and permeate a growing number of aspects of the daily life of consumers.