NPD Forecasts 6.5 Percent Growth for U.S. Toy Industry

U.S. toy sales grew 6 percent from January through September 2016, according to The NPD Group. NPD expects several trends to continue growth through the remainder of the year for estimated toy sales to be up approximately 6.5 percent until the end of the year. Trends include a movement towards experiential purchasing, the popularity of collectibles, the drive toward healthier living, and higher price-points during the holiday season.

NPDToyChart2016

Seven of the 11 toy supercategories have posted year-over-year growth through September. Of the seven, the fastest growing is Games and Puzzles, up 16 percent, followed by Dolls and Action Figures & Accessories, both up 12 percent. Within Games and Puzzles, every type of game is fueling growth, from family strategy to board games, to brainteasers and adult games. With Pie Face and Uno Card Game both among this year’s top 10 selling items year-to-date, it is likely that toys tied to family fun experiences will be on many people’s wish lists.

In addition, the collectibles craze has built significant momentum heading into the fourth quarter. Sales of collectibles—which fall under the dolls and action figures categories—were up 64 percent, or more than $220 million through September. Approximately one-quarter of the $220 million is tied to blind bags, which are estimated to have grown about 80 percent so far this year, NPD says.

While collectibles such as blind bags may be popular stocking stuffers, higher-priced toys are likely to be the presents wrapped under the tree this holiday season. Items including the Star Wars Sphero App Controlled BB-8 and Star Wars Millennium Falcon are among the top 10 toys year-to-date, while the newly-released Hatchimals, an interactive toy that hatches from an egg, which released on Oct. 7, was already among the top five best-selling toys for the week ending Oct. 8, 2016.

The healthy living trend is tied to 9 percent year-to-date growth in Outdoor & Sports toys, the largest toy supercategory with dollar sales, representing about a quarter of all toy industry sales. Based on dollar sales only, Outdoor & Sports is the industry’s strongest growing category in 2016.

About the author

Maddie Michalik

Maddie Michalik

Maddie Michalik was the Editor-in-Chief of The Toy Book from 2020-2022. She was also a Senior Editor at The Toy Insider and The Pop Insider.

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