The National Retail Federation expects sales in November and December—excluding autos, gas, and restaurant sales—to increase 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion. This is significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent and above the seven-year average of 3.4 percent since recovery began in 2009.
Additionally, NRF is forecasting non-store sales to increase between 7 to 10 percent to as much as $117 billion. Holiday sales in 2015 increased 3.0 percent over the previous year.
NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. The overall forecast includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.)
