The National Retail Federation (NRF) expects sales (excluding auto, gas, and restaurant sales) to increase 4.1 percent to $616.9 billion in November and December, higher than 2013’s 3.1 percent increase during that same time frame. This would mark the first time since 2011 that holiday sales would increase more than 4 percent.
Holiday sales on average have grown 2.9 percent over the past 10 years, including 2014’s estimates, and are expected to represent approximately 19.2 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion.
NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. It now includes direct-to-consumer, kiosk, and online sales.
Additionally, NRF expects between 725,000 and 800,000 new seasonal employers for the holiday shopping season, potentially more than retailers hired in 2013.
NRF’s shop.org division expects online sales to grow 8 to 11 percent more than last holiday season.
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According to another NRF survey, 2010 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $688.87 on holiday-related shopping, a slight rise from last year’s $681.83. More than 60 percent of shoppers said the economy would impact their spending, down from last year’s 65.3 percent, but shoppers plan to compensate by spending less (81.5 percent), comparison shopping online (30.9 percent), shopping for sales (54.1 percent), and using more coupons (40.6 percent). The most important factors when shopping this holiday season, said survey respondents, were sales and discounts (41.8 percent).
As in years past, most holiday gift-givers will spend most of their budget on gifts for family ($393.55), followed by friends ($71.45), and co-workers ($18.26). Total spending on gifts ($518.08) is expected to increase 2.1 percent from last year. Other holiday purchases will include decorations ($41.51), greeting cards and postage ($26.10), candy and food ($86.32), and flowers ($16.86).
For more results, click here. This survey was conducted by BIGresearch.
According to a new report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), holiday retail sales are expected to increase 2.3 percent this year to $447.1 billion. Last year holiday sales increased 0.4 percent compared to 2008. In 2008, holiday sales declined 3.9 percent compared to 2007. The NRF reports that retailers are expected to focus on inventory control to limit unplanned markdowns. The NRF also expects new channels, such as mobile, to drive sales and provide added service.