NPD’s annual report and volumetric forecasts through 2021 for all 96 toy subcategories that the organization tracks are included in the package.
This year was forecast to have a slight decline, largely due to skewed numbers thanks to last year’s liquidation of Toys “R” Us in the U.S. Recent trends are showing an overall uptick in certain categories, with overall sales expected to rise again next year and through the end of 2021.
“Although sales were down 9% in the first half of this year, the gains in the back half will make up for almost all of those losses,” says Juli Lennett, vice president and industry advisor, toys, The NPD Group. “Despite the lingering and minor evaporation from the loss of Toys ‟R” Us, the toy industry is poised for growth in 2020 and 2021.”
Sales in action figures and accessories makes it the strongest supercategory this year, with Toy Story 4, Fortnite, Bakugan, and Beyblade helping to move the needle. Additionally, NPD expects the strong growth of MGA Entertainment’s L.O.L. Surprise! and Mattel’s Barbie, along with the Oct. 4 release of product tied to Frozen 2 to lead the dolls category to overall growth by the end of the year.
Pokémon and Magic the Gathering have propelled growth in trading card games, though the overall games and puzzles category remains flat for the year. NPD believes that games and puzzles will grow through 2021 as more consumers stay home for entertainment, and the social media sharing of games continues.