According to The NPD Group, U.S. toy industry sales will grow 6.2 percent, or just over $1 billion, for full-year 2015. The forecast is based on the positive mid-year sales performance of the industry, which grew by 6.5 percent, or about $400 million, through July 4.
For the past four years, 34 percent of toy sales have occurred during the first half of the year. The NPD Group, which used this methodology for its full-year estimate, attributed the particularly strong year for toys thus far to the success of Disney Frozen, Minecraft, Shopkins, and Paw Patrol.
Currently the largest super category based on dollar volume, Outdoor & Sports Toys enjoyed the most significant dollar gains during the first half of the year, while Youth Electronics grew the fastest. Comparing year-to-date figures, the Infant/Preschool Toys category experienced the largest dollar declines last year, but rose to No. 2 in dollar gains.
By contrast, the Arts & Crafts category, which grew last year, is the only super category to experience declines this year.
Looking ahead, the NPD Group predicts the close of this year will be even better than expected for the toy industry, thanks to certain events such as retailer promotions. In addition, thanks to the movie releases of Minions and Star Wars: Episode VII—The Force Awakens, which fall during the second half—and continued momentum from other summer blockbusters—licensed toys are predicted to be strong.
U.S. data represented retailers that participated in The NPD Group’s Retail Tracking Service, which represents approximately 80 percent of the U.S. retail market for toys.
