A container ship passes beneath the Golden Gate Bridge

A container ship passes beneath the Golden Gate Bridge
Source: Pixabay

Forecasting in the COVID-19 era continues to be a fluid endeavor.

The latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates shows that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on retail imports may not be as bad as previously expected.

“The numbers we’re seeing are still below last year, but are better than what we expected a month ago,” says NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold “It may still be too soon to say, but we’ll take that as a sign that the situation could be slowly starting to improve. Consumers want to get back to shopping, and as more people get back to work, retailers want to be sure their shelves are stocked.”

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett notes that the import numbers have been an erratic rollercoaster this year. Accordingly, forecasts for the months ahead have been adjusted once more, reflecting the assumption that shipments to ports will remain below 2019 levels, but not as low as the previous models indicated.

“Getting 40 million people back to work will take time, especially with many fearful of catching the virus and staying home,” Hackett says.  “That makes a rapid return to an economic boom unlikely.”

Spring season was a mixed bag this year as retail numbers hit record lows while major retailers gained market share due to smaller businesses being closed.

About the author

James Zahn

James Zahn

James Zahn, AKA The Rock Father, is Editor-in-Chief of The Toy Book, a Senior Editor at The Toy Insider and The Pop Insider, and Editor of The Toy Report, The Toy Book‘s weekly industry newsletter. As a pop culture and toy industry expert, Zahn has appeared as a panelist and guest at events including Comic-Con International: San Diego (SDCC) Wizard World Chicago, and the ASTRA Marketplace & Academy. Zahn has more than 30 years of experience in the entertainment, retail, and publishing industries, and is frequently called upon to offer expert commentary for publications such as Forbes, Marketwatch, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, USA Today, Reuters, the Washington Post, and more. James has appeared on History Channel’s Modern Marvels, was interviewed by Larry King and Anderson Cooper, and has been seen on Yahoo! Finance, CNN, CNBC, FOX Business, NBC, ABC, CBS, WGN, The CW, and more. Zahn joined the Adventure Media & Events family in 2016, initially serving as a member of the Parent Advisory Board after penning articles for the Netflix Stream Team, Fandango Family, PBS KIDS, Sprout Parents (now Universal Kids), PopSugar, and Chicago Parent. He eventually joined the company full time as a Senior Editor and moved up the ranks to Deputy Editor and Editor-in-Chief.

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