After two years of flat performance, the U.S. toy industry is finally showing signs of renewed momentum. According to Circana, sales from January through September 2025 spiked 7% in dollars versus the same period last year, driven by a 4% increase in average selling price and a 3% increase in unit sales.
Collectible and licensed toys led the rebound. Collectibles jumped 33% as strategic and sports trading cards, action figures, and pop-culture collectibles continued to surge in demand. Licensed products climbed 14%, powered by themes from sports, movies, video games, and fan-favorite fantasy worlds.
Seven of the industry’s 11 supercategories grew in dollars, with six also rising in units. Games & Puzzles posted the strongest gains, largely thanks to Pokémon. Explorative & Other Toys followed, fueled by ongoing strength in trading cards, while Building Sets saw a lift from Formula 1. The softest categories were Outdoor & Sports Toys, Plush, and Dolls.
The top new* toys via Supercategory closing out Q3 in September may be surprising:
- Games & Puzzles: Pokémon Mega Evolution Pack Blister Assortment | The Pokémon Company International
- Building Sets: LEGO Game Boy | The LEGO Group
- Explorative & Other Toys: 2024-25 Panini Donruss Optic NBA Trading Card Mega Box | Panini
- Dolls: Monster High Skullector, Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride, Emily Doll | Mattel
- Action Figures & Accessories: Marvel Legends X-Men ’97 6-inch Figure Assortment | Hasbro
- Youth Electronics: Pets Alive Polly the Surprise Magic Bird | ZURU
- Plush: Aphmau MeeMeows 11-inch Classic Mystery Plush Assortment | Bonkers Toys
- Infant, Toddler, & Preschool Toys: Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Meow-Mazing Interactive Dollhouse | Spin Master
- Vehicles: Monster Jam Smash & Bash Grave Digger 1:64 Scale | Spin Master
- Arts & Crafts: Sticki Rolls Aphmau Sticki Band Capsule Assortment | Sky Castle Toys
- Outdoor & Sports Toys: Get Growing Tractor & Mower Ride-on | VTech
Source: Circana/Retail Tracing Service/U.S. Toys/September 2025
*New = $0 sales, July 2024-June 20-25
The U.S. consumer, and their willingness to absorb tariffs, will be the key factor shaping Q4 performance. The toy industry has a unique advantage and tends to be resilient in turbulent times as toys serve as emotional anchors for families, offering joy and a welcome distraction in our lives. The industry also benefits from trends like adult self-gifting, nostalgia, and digital wellness — factors that are expected to influence holiday purchases.”
Circana’s latest Holiday Purchase Intentions Report paints a cautious but hopeful picture for Q4, amid “a complex retail landscape shaped by economic pressures, shifting shopping behaviors, and tariff-related pricing adjustments.” Overall, holiday spending is projected to range from a 1% decline to 2% gain in dollars. However, unit sales could fall 2.5%. Consumers are shopping earlier, focusing on affordability, and seeking emotional value in their purchases.
As the holiday season kicks into high gear, manufacturers and retailers are moving quickly to capture early spend, with collectibles, games, and licensed brands leading the way.
While sales are up at the cash register, it is worth noting that the challenges of 2025 have had an impact behind the scenes, as tariff-related costs have eaten into margins, resulting in layoffs throughout the U.S. toy industry. This news arrives as we enter another season of mixed messaging, where more than one thing can be true.
Check out the Q3 earnings from Mattel, Hasbro, Spin Master, and JAKKS Pacific. Funko is the last of the big five public toy and collectibles companies to report, with earnings expected on November 6, 2025.
