Have you heard that the average price of toys has decreased tremendously since 1993?
If not, it’s likely because it hasn’t, but a new piece of “fake news” is gaining steam that says otherwise.
Business Insider published a baffling piece this week (archived here) citing data that was possibly misinterpreted using Bureau of Labor Statistics calculators. In the article, Business Insider claims that “Toys as a category has had significant deflation — meaning they’ve gotten way cheaper in the last 30 years. … Simply put: a toy that cost $20 in 1993 would only cost $4.68 today.”
This comes as news to those working in the toy industry along with the millions of consumers shopping for hot toys this holiday season.
According to Juli Lennett, Vice President, Industry Advisor, U.S. Toys at Circana (formerly The NPD Group), it’s possible that using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator to calculate a value in today’s dollars could show a decrease in the average price of a specific toy.
“The problem is that the mix of toys has likely changed since 1993. Unless you can compare the exact item then to the exact item today, making this kind of comparison is not recommended,” Lennett says.
Circana data shows that the average retail price across total toys in 1993 was $8.56. For the past 12 months (ending November 2023), the average selling price across all toys is $12.16, a 42% increase over 1993.
Echoing Lennett’s statement about the mix of toys, inflation has affected different categories in different ways, and there are a lot of factors at play. On one hand, WowWee’s relaunched Fingerlings are being sold for $14.99, approximately the same price they were sold for during the brand’s initial launch in 2017. Meanwhile, Hasbro’s 6-inch scale action figure lines including Star Wars, G.I. Joe, Marvel Legends, and Power Rangers have seen prices jump from $19.99 to $24.99 (and sometimes higher) in that same period. Even Mattel’s mainline Hot Wheels vehicles, which have been around the $1 mark for much of their history, average $1.25 at retail this season.
According to Business Insider, the fictional “deflation” in the toy department “is due to a handful of factors, but mainly increased reliance on cheap overseas production.”
If anyone knows the location of this mythical land of “cheap overseas production,” please share it with the rest of the industry at large because folks would love to know.
It certainly isn’t in China anymore as cost increases have forced toy and game makers to continue shifts to other countries and even nearshoring and reshoring production to locations closer to the final delivery destination of their products.
