As more individuals get vaccinated against COVID-19, the NRF believes that sales will spike between 6.5% and 8.2% as the economy continues to reopen.
“Despite the continuing health and economic challenges COVID-19 presents, we are very optimistic that healthy consumer fundamentals, pent-up demand, and widespread distribution of the vaccine will generate increased economic growth, retail sales, and consumer spending,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “From the outset of the pandemic, retailers have gone above and beyond even the most conservative safety guidelines to protect and serve their associates and consumers alike. Retailers are increasingly engaged in working with federal, state, and local health officials to distribute and administer the vaccine. This partnership has been key to our economic health throughout the pandemic and will continue this year.”
The NRF says that it will continue to update its estimates as new data emerges throughout the year citing the very fluid situation that the pandemic presents.
Last year, the U.S. toy industry grew 16% per NPD, and the NRF says that the 2020 November/December holiday season accounted for nearly a fifth of overall U.S. retail sales.