Following weeks of speculation coming out of a challenging year, the numbers are in.
According to The NPD Group, U.S. toy industry retail sales were essentially flat in 2022. A slight decrease of 0.2% ($49 million) came alongside a 4% dip in overall unit sales. The average selling price (ASP), largely fueled by inflation, rose 3% to $12.68 last year.
Still, the results are solid following strong growth over the past few years.
In 2021, the U.S. toy industry saw sales spike 14% year-over-year following a 17% gain in 2020. Combined, the U.S. toy industry has a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, fueled by ASP growth of 8% and unit sales growth of 2%.
“After three record-breaking years for the toy industry, 2022 was a challenging year. U.S. consumers were forced to endure significant economic headwinds stemming from inflation and adverse macroeconomic factors,” says Juli Lennett, Vice President and Toy Industry Advisor, The NPD Group. “While these headwinds certainly impacted overall consumer behavior, the toy industry still managed to finish the year on a positive note as spending kept pace with the previous high-water mark of 2021.”
Notably, the fourth quarter was challenging for the industry amid inflation, weather disruptions, continued COVID-19 concerns, and other factors. NPD says that the season was “muted,” with a 5% decline in Q4.
The Big Hits of 2022
Just four of the 11 supercategories tracked by NPD posted growth last year.
- Plush: 31%
- Explorative & Other Toys: 16%
- Building Sets: 8%
- Action Figures: 4%
Top Toy Properties of 2022
- Pokémon
- Barbie
- Marvel
- Star Wars
- Squishmallows
- Fisher-Price
- Hot Wheels
- L.O.L. Surprise!
- LEGO Star Wars
- Melissa & Doug.
Collectively, these 10 properties grew by 7%, while the rest of the market declined by 2%.
“Like last year, 2023 will bring about bright moments and deep groans. With a more significant theatrical calendar this year compared to the last three years, the U.S. toy industry will be poised to enjoy the fruits of several tentpole movies,” Lennett says. “However, if inflation and other adverse macroeconomic factors linger later in the year, or become worse, we can expect to see families pulling back on the number of toys they purchase or trading down to lower price points.”
For more insight from The NPD Group, check out the next issue of The Toy Book aka The BIG Toy Book, out Feb. 28, 2023! Don’t miss an issue, subscribe today!
