Cash registers should be jingling this season, as holiday retail sales are expected to cross the $1 trillion mark this year.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), November and December sales forecasts point to $1.013 trillion in sales, up 4.2% from 2025. Last year, holiday sales increased 3.1% to $972 billion.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” said Matthew Shay, President and CEO of NRF. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews pointed to continued consumer spending as a bright spot, though inflation, rising gas prices, higher interest rates, and elevated debt could shape how individual households approach the season.
Retailers aren’t going overboard on seasonal hiring, either. NRF expects the industry to add between 325,000 and 375,000 holiday workers, roughly in line with the estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs added last year.
For the toy business, that trillion-dollar headline sets the stage for the most important stretch of the retail calendar, with consumers still spending, but keeping a close eye on value in what’s already proven to be a tremendous year for the U.S. toy industry.
