It’s been a year of mixed messaging for the U.S. toy industry amid inflation, tariffs, and an erratic earnings season. Still, the predictions of 2025 being a “return to growth” — at least from a retail sales perspective — have proven true thus far, backed by the latest data from Circana.
Following the pandemic-skewed sales booms of 2020-2022, declines in 2023 were followed by a relatively flat 2024. According to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service, the U.S. toy industry is back in growth mode with dollar sales up 6% in the first half of 2025. More importantly, unit sales are up 3%, while the average selling price (ASP) — which has been flat for three years — grew 3%.
The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in. This resilience is especially important as we set our sights on the holiday season and what categories are critical for the consumer to bring joy to their loved ones."
Adults, often dubbed “kidults” within the industry, continue driving market growth. Sales of products purchased for those ages 18 and up spiked 18% in the first half of the year. Circana says that the adult market is nearly a 50/50 split between male and female consumers.
Supercategory Performance
Seven of the 11 supercategories tracked by Circana’s Retail Tracking Service posted dollar growth in the first half of the year. Games and Puzzles led the charge with a 39% increase, while Explorative Toys jumped 19%, fueled by strong demand for Pokémon and NFL trading cards, respectively. Additional gains came from Youth Electronics (+9%), Action Figures (+8%), Building Sets (+7%), Arts and Crafts (+4%), and Vehicles (+2%).
Licensed toys accounted for 37% of U.S. toy sales and gained nearly four share points over 2024. Sales in the licensed segment surged 18%, with every top growth property tied to entertainment, licensing, or movie releases. Video game brands dominated the leaderboard, with Pokémon, Final Fantasy, and Minecraft among the top gainers. Movie tie-ins such as Formula 1, Lilo & Stitch, and Sonic the Hedgehog also played a key role in driving category momentum.
Additionally, sales in preschool products reversed last year’s trend and returned to growth.
While retail sales numbers are reason to celebrate, the challenges that the U.S. toy industry faces remain very real, as President Trump’s trade policies and fluctuating tariffs continue to destroy margins and result in job losses throughout the sector.
Look for more insights from Circana and others in The Toy Book‘s 2025 LA Fall Toy Preview issue, coming in September.
